Population Change as a Template for Policymaking
Photo credit/Mention de source: Tina Mokhtarnejad
Abolfazl Dadvar
(FR) La répartition des populations ainsi que la démographie qui façonne les fondements culturels, sociaux, politiques et économiques de la région constituent un facteur important qui détermine les besoins d’une communauté ou d’une société. Par conséquent, un changement dans cette dynamique pourrait définir le futur de la société respective ; il est alors important lorsqu’il s’agit de la conduite des politiques. Le texte qui suit explore plusieurs changements dans la population de la Région métropolitaine de recensement de Toronto (RMR), en utilisant des données collectées par l’agence du gouvernement fédéral canadien, Statistique Canada. En observant les tendances et les schémas démographiques, pour la municipalité centrale de Toronto et ses banlieues, des signes de comportement social peuvent être détectés afin d’élucider les tendances économiques de la population résidente. Le texte analyse en détail la suburbanisation de la ville à cause de sa croissance et l’immigration pour la même raison. La suburbanisation a également conduit au concept de métropolisation à Toronto, en conséquence, à son accroissement et expansion démographique rapide. Alors que les tendances de la croissance démographique et de l’immigration sont révélatrices d’une ville saine, une planification adéquate est nécessaire pour la préserver. Une approche pragmatique aux nouveaux problèmes par les décideurs politiques pourrait ouvrir la voie aux urbanistes à établir un plan pour l’avenir et, pourrait s’avérer bénéfique.
In order to develop policy mechanisms and planning tools to execute the needs of a region’s population, the population change in said region must be considered. The Toronto region’s population change is measured at the level of the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Many factors can affect a shift in the population of a city or region, as seen with this specific region.
Through an urban morphology[KN1] lens, it can be seen that the population of Toronto and its suburbs have shifted with time due to interchanges between municipalities and rural areas, as well as immigration to and emigration from other parts of the country and world. These population changes, along with the status and origin of the constituents of the population, play a significant role in determining the social, political, and economic status of the society as a whole.
The population in the Toronto CMA has been collected and analyzed for many years now. According to the censuses done by Statistics Canada, Toronto’s population, as the central city of the CMA, had a decreasing number of people between 1961 and 1981, dropping from 740, 456 in 1961 to 633,302 in 1981.[i] However, with the exclusion of York, a rising population trend was prominent in the inner suburbs, as well as for King and Mississauga[KN2] . It is worth mentioning that a lot of today’s outer suburbs and inner suburbs were still rural areas at this time and, therefore, were not included in the census.[ii]
Since the 1991 census, the growth rate has significantly slowed down in the suburban areas and rural fringes, while Toronto’s population has taken an upward trend.1 In 2006, the inner suburbs of East York, Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough, and York were all combined with the municipality of Toronto,[iii] displaying the significance of population changes in policymakers’ decisions concerning the fate of a city.
The municipality of Toronto is at the top of the urban hierarchy in Canada,1 meaning that it possesses a significant amount of power when it comes to policymaking at both the provincial and federal levels. Thus, interpreting the processes that Toronto has gone through to reach this position, plus the movement of population within the Toronto metropolitan area itself, are vital components in providing the public and, more importantly, the policymakers with the right tools to handle a change in population.
Immigrants and their descendants make up a significant portion of the Canadian population. In recent decades, Toronto, as the cosmopolitan center of Canada, has attracted the majority of these immigrants. In 1961, foreign-born individuals made up 33% of the total population. This number increased to 44% in 2001, meaning that almost half of the population of Toronto CMA was composed of immigrants rather than Canadian born individuals at this time.[iv] There are many factors behind this phenomenon:
· Political freedom
· Economic prosperity
· Higher education level
· Lower crime rates[v]
A trend that should be explained is the decrease in Toronto’s population from 1961 to 1991 and, in contrast, the increase in the population of most of the inner suburbs during the same time frame. This phenomenon may have been due to the rapid rise in central Toronto’s housing prices as they became more of a business hub. Therefore, the new incoming population settled in the inner suburbs where affordable housing existed alongside relatively easy transport to the core of the city. This concept is known as suburbanization. Through suburbanization, large residential areas are created just outside of the city center, which concentrates more population than the rest of the country. Hence, in Toronto CMA, an upward trend is observed in the population of East York, Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough since 1961. A later increase in population was found in York, which was likely due to the low starting population of the city’s core, which then expanded out to reach further municipalities. This occurrence is not specific to Toronto; from 2011 to 2016, the population growth in Canada was higher amongst peripheral municipalities, with a rate of +6.9%, compared to central municipalities, at +5.8%.1
Metropolitanization is another important concept that should be addressed when observing population change in the Toronto CMA. Toronto, as a metropolitan area, attracts many people, and its population consequently grows at a faster rate than in other urban areas. As a result, in 1988, the steady geographical expansion, upgrading, and combining of nearby rural areas to and with urban areas and cities occurred.[vi]
The Toronto CMA, as the largest municipality in Canada, will continue to grow. The city’s population will continue to spread further from the core, as seen currently with cities such as Brampton and Vaughan. On the other hand, rural fringes will grow to be towns and, ultimately, cities. Toronto will have a lower increase in its population as it becomes oversaturated with businesses, and residential spaces become less available and more expensive. As a result, one of the most significant challenges that urban planners and government officials will have to take on is the issue of housing. With the rapid increase in population, they will have to decide how to settle this population while avoiding the overpopulation of certain areas. A possible option is the building of discrete high-rise residential areas surrounded by low-rise residential areas in the suburbs of the core that can withhold the population while preventing congestion. Policymakers could derive ideas from French-style housing which creates more space and would therefore be useful in fulfilling the increased need for housing.
The Toronto CM has undergone a lengthy process to get where it is now. With almost half of it being composed of people who were not originally born there, it is apparent that the region bears many positive and attractive traits. However, the rise in population requires adaptative measures be policymakers to ensure the population is accommodated.